Berlin, November 12, 2025: Germany’s export sector, long burdened by weak demand from China and tariff pressures from the United States, is finding new momentum through trade with Central and Eastern Europe.
According to the Eastern Business Association of Germany (Ost-Ausschuss), exports to 29 countries in Central and Eastern Europe as well as Central Asia grew by 2.35% in the first nine months of 2025, reaching €216 billion ($251 billion).
By comparison, Germany’s overall exports rose only 0.3% during the same period. Shipments to both China and the U.S. fell sharply, exposing the vulnerabilities of Germany’s traditional trade pillars.
Exports to China and the U.S. Fall Sharply
Trade data reveals the shifting dynamics of global commerce for Europe’s largest economy.
Exports to China declined by 11.9%, reflecting both weak industrial demand and continuing supply chain challenges. Exports to the United States also dropped 7.4%, hit by Washington’s protectionist tariff policies and geopolitical uncertainty.
This combination of factors has left Germany facing a record trade deficit with China, once its largest non-European trading partner.
Eastern Europe Emerges as a Reliable Growth Engine
While trade with major global economies weakened, Germany’s Eastern European partners provided much-needed stability.
“The EU states in Central and South-Eastern Europe were once again reliable partners for the German export industry this year,” said Cathrina Claas-Muehlhaeuser, Chairwoman of the Ost-Ausschuss Eastern Business Association, in a statement to Reuters.
Exports to Poland and the Czech Republic, the region’s two largest markets, rose by €5.6 billion, underlining their growing importance as industrial and manufacturing hubs.
By contrast, trade with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Georgia fell sharply. Commerce with Russia and Belarus continued to decline due to EU sanctions related to the war in Ukraine.
Despite these setbacks, overall trade with the region increased by 2.9% year-on-year, totaling €413 billion.
A Call to Strengthen Regional Economic Ties
Claas-Muehlhaeuser emphasized that Germany and the EU must deepen ties with cooperative economies in Central Asia and the South Caucasus to secure long-term growth.
“We are concerned to see how China and the U.S. are actively pursuing their economic interests in these regions and the Western Balkans,” she said.
“Europe must use its Global Gateway infrastructure program strategically to ensure we do not lose these markets to global competitors.”
She also urged systematic removal of trade barriers within the EU single market and called for faster EU enlargement toward the east and southeast to unlock untapped potential.
Why Eastern Europe Matters for German Trade
Eastern Europe offers Germany both proximity and partnership advantages. The region’s robust industrial base, lower production costs, and integration within the European Union supply chain make it a key growth driver for German manufacturers.
Countries like Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia have become essential in automotive components, machinery exports, and logistics. The digitalization and automation trends in these economies also align closely with Germany’s industrial strengths.
Challenges Ahead
Despite the progress, challenges remain. Persistent energy costs, labor shortages, and the transition to green manufacturing are testing exporters across Europe.
Meanwhile, geopolitical shifts continue to complicate supply chains, especially for companies reliant on imports of raw materials or intermediate goods from Asia.
Germany’s business leaders stress the need for strategic diversification and stronger intra-European trade links to ensure resilience against future shocks.
Looking Forward
The growth in Eastern European exports highlights how regional cooperation can offset global trade headwinds. With the EU’s Global Gateway initiative gaining momentum, there is renewed opportunity for European nations to collaborate on infrastructure, energy, and digital connectivity projects that strengthen trade flows.
For Germany, building deeper partnerships in Eastern Europe could not only protect its export-driven economy but also support a more sustainable and balanced European trade landscape in the decade ahead.