As Ukraine has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire offer, all eyes are now on Russia‘s response. However, post-Soviet political expert Donnacha Ó Beacháin predicts that Russia will have a series of qualifications and conditions before agreeing to any ceasefire.
In an interview on Radio Schuman, Ó Beacháin, a Professor of Politics at Dublin City University, explained that Russia is unlikely to accept any ceasefire that does not legitimize its territorial gains in Ukraine. He emphasized that Russia will demand recognition of its actions in the contested regions, particularly regarding land grabs and the displacement of ethnic populations.
“Russia will want to ensure any ceasefire agreement acknowledges their territorial acquisitions and the changes they’ve imposed on the ground,” Ó Beacháin said.
With the situation in Ukraine continuing to unfold, experts are closely monitoring the evolving diplomatic negotiations. Ó Beacháin also highlighted other significant geopolitical issues, including the upcoming EU-South Africa summit and a growing trend of VAT fraud across Europe.
As the ceasefire negotiations progress, the international community remains uncertain about whether both sides can reach a compromise that halts the ongoing conflict.